With the government setting a target of 175 GW renewable energy (RE) capacity by the end of 2022, the rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that growth in the domestic coal demand is likely to witness a structural slowdown. It noted that over the years, the capital cost of setting up renewable energy (RE) in the country has been going down steadily with the tariffs of RE coming at par with the conventional sources. It also highlighted that this year, solar power tariff dropped to hit a new low of Rs 2.44 per unit in the auction conducted for Bhadla solar park.
The rating firm believes that a greater parity between conventional and RE tariffs, along with the current thermal overcapacity, will lead to a perceptible slowdown in fresh investments in setting up coal-based generation capacities in the next five years. It also expects that this trend would trigger a prolonged period of subdued demand of thermal coal for domestic miners. Considering that the country’s RE capacity reaches 125 GW in 2022, the report noted that domestic coal demand is likely to register a modest compounded annual growth rate of around 3.5 percent between FY2018 and FY2022, as against 5.6 percent registered between FY2013 and FY2017. Reflecting the trend, it further said that coal India’s ambitious coal production target of 1 billion tonne in FY2020 is likely to be missed by a wide margin.
However, the report maintained that notwithstanding the anticipated slowdown in average annual coal demand in the next five years, domestic coal production is likely to grow by a higher compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 5.5 per cent between FY2018 and FY2022, leading to a significant reduction in India’s coal imports. It also said that thermal coal imports are expected to contract to below 100 metric tonne in FY2022, declining from 149 metric tonne in FY2017. It added that a gradual replacement of imported coal by domestic coal is expected to help domestic miners to an extent.
Start Research-backed Investing ...Now. Subscribe to Sapphire
MoneyWorks4Me is a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser (IA) dedicated to helping investors build long-term wealth through transparent, research-driven, conflict-free guidance. Founded in 2008, we started our journey as a Research Analyst (RA), providing deep fundamental analysis, intrinsic value insights, and long-term investing frameworks for Indian equities. In 2017, we transitioned to a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, strengthening our commitment to acting as a fiduciary—always putting the investor’s interest first.
To become India’s most trusted, research-powered fiduciary advisory platform—where every investor, regardless of experience, can make calm, confident, and well-reasoned investment decisions.
MoneyWorks4Me ensures this through: