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ARC Ratings affirms ‘BBB+/stable’ rating for India on expectation of strong economic growth

12 Sep 2017 Evaluate

Global rating agency ARC Ratings, in its latest report has affirmed the ‘BBB+’ rating to India and maintained a stable outlook on expectation of a strong economic growth. The rating agency also affirmed its ‘A-’ foreign currency and ‘A’ local currency country ceilings for the country. It has said that a solid outlook for economic dynamism continues to drive the sovereign ratings and added that India continues to enjoy solid economic performance and a strong medium term growth outlook, with real GDP growing 7.1% in FY2017. The report also highlighted that this performance clearly exceeds the average performance of peers and is exceptional in the context of expectations for moderate global growth plagued by downside risks associated with increased protectionism, political uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

The rating action comes even as the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to a three-year low of 5.7%. As per the report, lower growth is due to the short-term negative side effects of note ban, and GST implementation as well as the effects of the further deterioration of the twin balance sheet problem that affects the economy. Besides, the report added that the rating action is also supported by a comfortable external position marked by low external debt of nearly 20% of GDP, an unblemished debt repayments record, external liquidity from large diaspora and favourable demographics that fuel demand.

ARC Ratings further said that the key risks to the ratings are weak government finances, characterised by low revenue yield and extreme inefficiencies in the government sector, a large government debt and sizeable fiscal deficits, serving as the main credit constraints. It also warned that twin balance sheet problem, with weaknesses in the banks given the high non-performing assets (NPAs) and insufficient capital levels, combined with high corporate sector leverage (50% of GDP) are the major impediments to higher growth.

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