S&P threatens to slash India’s credit rating to junk status

11 Jun 2012 Evaluate

Taking stock of the economic situation in Asia’s third largest Indian economy which is showing signs of cooling and the nation’s government being in a state of policy paralysis, global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&Ps) has warned India that it could lose its lowest investment grade rating of BBB-. In the event of such a downgrade, India would become first country to sport a sovereign credit rating of speculative grade from the four nations BRIC grouping, comprising Brazil, Russia and China among others.

S&P’s in its report ‘Will India Be The First BRIC Fallen Angel?’ has explained that government’s efforts to revive the flagging Indian economy and its greater vulnerability to withstand the economic turbulences would play a pivotal role in determining whether the country can maintain an investment-grade rating or become the first 'fallen angel' among the BRIC nations. Brazil and Russia have a credit rating of BBB which is one notch above India’s while China’s rating is several notches higher at AA-.

The report, which analyzes the nation’s GDP growth forecasts and the potential effects on business confidence along with the government's pledge to push economic reform, highlights that in the event of unpleasantly surprising economic shocks, the government would have to take potential backward steps that could reverse India's liberalization of the external sector and the financial sector. Setbacks or reversals in India's path towards a more liberal economy are likely to be long term challenges which could dampen the nation’s growth outlook and credit quality.

In April 2012, Standard & Poor's had reviewed India’s sovereign debt rating and had slashed the rating outlook to negative from stable citing weak GDP expansion prospects and the risk that its external liquidity and fiscal flexibility may wear down. The rating agency’s recent report also argues that despite the challenges, the economy remains relatively resilient to weather this period of heightened global uncertainty than it was in the early 1990s, when it suffered a balance-of-payments crisis.

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