Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has stated that India's current account deficit (CAD), which soared to a four-year high in first quarter of the current fiscal, is likely to touch $30-32 billion, or 1.2-1.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by March-end 2018. It noted that CAD, difference between the value of all imports and the value of all exports, increased sharply to $14.3 billion (2.4% of GDP) in April-June quarter of FY18, from $0.4 billion, (0.1% of GDP) a year ago, primarily on account of a higher trade deficit.
The rating agency further pointed out that the sharp rise in the CAD in Q1 FY18 comparative to Q1 FY17 did not came as a surprise, with the spike in gold imports prior to the GST rollout responsible for half of this uptick. It also added that the lagged impact of the rupee appreciation was partly responsible for a faster rise in non-oil non-gold imports relative to exports, bloating the goods trade deficit. In the first quarter, ICRA noted that net services receipts increased by 15.7 percent mainly on the back of a rise in net earnings from travel, construction and other business services. Also, it said that the net foreign direct investment at $7.2 billion during the quarter almost doubled from the same period last year.
The report further mentioned that the healthy 15 percent increase in the services trade surplus, modest increase in secondary income inflows and decline in primary income outflows shielded the current account deficit from an even larger deterioration. It also noted that despite a wider current account gap, the balance of payments surplus was $11.4 billion in April-June, compared with $6.97 billion a year ago, helped by strong dollar inflows that boosted the rupee 0.43 percent during the quarter.
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