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WTO raises 2017 world trade growth forecast to 3.6%

22 Sep 2017 Evaluate

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has raised its 2017 forecast for world trade growth to 3.6 percent from the 2.4 percent estimated earlier, a development which augurs well for India. It also said that the predicted growth would also represent a substantial improvement on the lackluster 1.3 percent increase in 2016.

The Geneva-based multi-lateral trade body has stated said that stronger growth in 2017 was attributed to a recovery of Asian trade flows as intra-regional shipments picked up and as import demand in North America improved after stalling in 2016. It also pointed out that while the improved outlook for trade is welcome news, substantial risks that threaten the world economy remain in place and that could easily undermine any trade recovery.

WTO further said that these risks include the possibility that protectionist rhetoric translates into trade restrictive actions, a worrying rise in global geopolitical tensions and a rising economic toll from natural disasters. It also said that stronger growth particularly in China and the US have boosted demand for imports. In addition, it noted that the rapid pace of trade growth this year is unlikely to be sustained next year for a number of reason. It said “First, trade growth in 2018 will not be measured against a weak base year, as is the case this year. Second, monetary policy is expected to tighten in developed countries.”

India’s exports posted a double-digit year-on-year growth of 10.29 percent after a gap of three months to $23.81 billion in August, mainly on account of sharp rise in export of petroleum products, chemicals, marine products and engineering goods. 


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