The World Bank in its latest report has said that India's economic momentum has been affected by disruptions arising from structural reforms like demonetisation and uncertainties around the new uniform tax regime. As a result of this, it said that the country’s economic growth may slow down to 7.0 percent in 2017 from 8.6 percent in 2015. However, it also expects that sound policies around balancing public spending with private investment could accelerate growth to 7.3 percent by 2018.
In its latest South Asia Economic Focus, a biannual economic update, the unilateral agency has stated that while sustained growth is expected to translate to continued poverty reduction, more focus could be made to help benefit the informal economy more. On the one hand, the report indicated that public and private consumption gained pace after implementation of the 7th central pay commission recommendations and due to the revival in rural demand after normal monsoon and agricultural impetus, however, overall demand slowed as public investments started to wane.
The report further said that economic growth is expected to increase gradually to 7.4 percent by 2020, underpinned by a recovery in private investments, which are expected to be crowded-in by the recent increase in public capex and an improvement in the investment climate (partly due to the passage of GST and Bankruptcy Code, and measures to attract FDI). It also said that the most substantial medium-term risks are associated with private investment recovery, which continues to face several domestic impediments such as corporate debt overhang, regulatory and policy challenges, along with the risk of an imminent increase in US interest rates.
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