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Markets to get a modestly positive start on good macro data

13 Oct 2017 Evaluate

The Indian markets showing a complete reversal of trend surged in the last session and the major benchmarks gained over a percent. Today, the start is likely to be mildly in green with traders getting encouragement from double dose of good economic news, while India's industrial production grew at a nine-month high of 4.3 percent in August due to good performance of mining, electricity and capital goods sectors, the retail inflation declined to 3.28 percent in September, compared to 4.39 percent during the same month last year and 3.36 percent in the previous month. Traders will also be getting some support with the International Monetary Fund lauding government’s recent efforts to lower the compliance burden under the Goods and Services Tax, but it also said that efforts should also be made to lower the tax slabs and minimise exemptions. There will be some action in power sector stocks, as the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Power and Renewable Energy, R K Singh has said that India’s energy needs are going to double in the next 6-7 years at the present rate of growth of the economy. There will be some buzz in the telecom sector too, as the Tata Group has agreed to sell its mobile business to Bharti Airtel for free, on a 'debt-free, cash-free basis, intensifying the consolidation process underway in the telecom industry.

The US markets turned modestly lower in the last session after showing a lackluster performance, and the major averages pulled back off yesterday's record closing highs. Negative reaction to earnings news from Citigroup and JPMorgan weighed on the market sentiments. The Asian markets have made a mixed start as confidence in American tax-cut plans waned somewhat and the Federal Reserve signaled that several policy makers are cautious about another 2017 interest-rate hike. The Chinese market was modestly in red ahead of Chinese Communist Party congress next week.

Back home, bulls which woke up in last leg of trade mainly helped the benchmarks to end near intraday high levels on Thursday, with frontline gauges ending near their crucial 10,100 (Nifty) and 32,200 (Sensex) levels, as investors took to hefty across the board buying ahead of macroeconomic data such as consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation for September and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for August due later in the day. Markets, soon after a cautious start gained momentum and traded with traction through the session, as sentiments remained upbeat on report that direct tax collections in the first six months of the current fiscal stood at Rs 3.86 lakh crore, growing by 15.8 per cent over the same period last year. Gross collections (before adjusting for refunds) have increased by 10.3 per cent to Rs 4.66 lakh crore during April to September. Traders also took some encouragement with report that the newly constituted Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) wants the government to stick to its fiscal consolidation road map and has suggested that stimulus to the industry should not be at the cost of fiscal prudence. Markets extended gains in last leg of trade after index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) hit its record high ahead of its second quarter earnings slated to be released on Friday. A strong rally in Tata Consultancy Services also contributed to the gains. TCS is scheduled to report its Q2 numbers later in the day. Some support also came with finance minister Arun Jaitley’s statement that the series of reforms like demonetization and Goods and Services Tax (GST) has put Indian economy on a far stronger track. Jaitley added that these are structural changes. And these structural changes, I think have put the Indian economy on a far more sound track so that we can look forward for a much cleaner much bigger India economy in the days and years to come. Separately, Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg expressed hope that India’s GDP might return to 7% plus growth by next year as all indicators point to an economic turnaround. The country’s economic slowdown has hit its bottom and will be riding the growth wave one again. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 348.23 points or 1.09% to 32,182.22, while the CNX Nifty was up by 111.60 points or 1.12% to 10,096.40.

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