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Indian economy is facing stagflation: Moody's

15 Jun 2012 Evaluate

Indian economy is facing stagflation, as per the global financial services firm Moody's, where growth is slow and inflation high and also cautioned that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should not be too aggressive in slashing interest rates in its policy meet.

The agency is of the view that with headline inflation inching up to 7.5% y-o-y in May due to supply-side constraints, along with rupee depreciating to record low-levels, sluggish prospects of growth and industrial production, a further rate cut will have an upward pressure on inflation.

The recent fall in the rupee will further push the prices upwards, particularly imported goods and commodities valued in dollar. By adding further it stated, the rupee, which is sitting 15% below its peak of late-February, will make sure that inflation remains in the 7-8% range for an additional 6-months.

The agency cautioned that the RBI should not be ‘too aggressive’, when inflation remains a problem. However, with economic growth slowing, the RBI should accept the higher inflation and go for a marginal rate-cut.

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