Cotton & sugarcane production expected to fall in 2012-13: CMIE

18 Jun 2012 Evaluate

Food grain production is expected to do well in 2012-13 but cotton and sugarcane production are forecasted to fall. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) in its monthly report has said that in 2012-13, production of food grain will grow by 0.6 per cent to 247.6 million tonnes. Higher output of rice and wheat along with a recovery in production of coarse cereals and pulses is expected to boost overall production.

On the same time, the acreage of cotton and sugarcane is expected to decline and as a result it will limit production of non-food crops to lower level than the year before. CMIE expects sugarcane production to fall by 0.9 per cent to 342.5 million tonnes in FY 13 mainly due to a fall in the acreage. In the FY 12 a sharp increase in cotton acreage had resulted in record production of 35 million bales. In spite of this excess production there was no demand during the corresponding marketing season. As a result cotton prices plunged causing losses. These losses will compel growers to move to alternative crops in this current season as Cotton production is forecasted to decline by 7.8 per cent to 32.2 million bales in FY 13.

Major oilseeds production is forecasted to recover by 3 per cent in FY 13, after being hit in the year before. Kharif cultivation has started but for sesame and sunflower seeds the process is very slow. The groundnut production is forecasted to recover in FY 13 following a steep decline in the year before. Groundnut cultivators turned to alternative crops in expectation of higher returns in FY 12. As a result production fell by an estimated 17 percent to 6.9 million tonnes. However a demand-supply mismatch of groundnut has led to a steep increase in prices of over 20 per cent during January-May 2012.

These conditions will motivate cultivators to increase cultivation of groundnuts. Groundnut production is forecasted to scale up by over 16 per cent to eight million tonnes in FY 13. Although major crop production is forecasted to fall by 0.6 percent, the overall agriculture sector is expected to grow by 2.4 percent in FY 13. An estimated growth in output of livestock, forestry and fisheries along with a modest 4 per cent rise in production of minor crops is expected to lift growth of the agriculture sector.

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