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India’s economic growth slowdown temporary: Moody's

10 Nov 2017 Evaluate

Moody's Investors Service in its latest Global Macroeconomic Update (2018-19) has stated that India is the only G20 emerging market country where growth has slowed sharply for six consecutive quarters. But it expects economic growth in 2017 to average 6.2% before accelerating to around 7.5% in 2018 and 2019. It said that the slowdown in economy was due to the temporary negative impact of last year's demonetization, temporary disruption related to the rollout of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and weak bank lending for investment-related activity due to a high proportion of delinquent loans on bank balance sheets. It added that the effects of demonetization and GST implementation will fade.

Terming government’s capital infusion plan for state-controlled banks positive for economic growth, the rating agency said that it will help to break the negative loop of weak lending, weak investment, weak growth and weak balance sheets. It also said that despite progress on economic reforms and monetary policy easing, the flow of bank credit for investment activities has been hampered by both the inability of the banking sector to lend and weak demand for credit.

Moody's further noted that the reforms, including liberalization of foreign direct investment in key sectors and the GST, will increase efficiency, boosting trend growth. Resolving stressed corporate and bank balance sheets through bankruptcy, resolution and recapitalization would be an important step toward restarting the investment cycle and unlocking the benefits of the reforms. This amount of capital injection would allow banks to meet international standards of capital adequacy and, over time, grow lending.

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