India’s GVA growth may improve to 6.3% in Q2FY18: ICRA

22 Nov 2017 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that India's economic growth rate in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to improve to 6.3% in July-September quarter (Q2FY18) from 5.6% in the first quarter of FY18, on the back of a broad-based pickup in industrial growth, even as agriculture, forestry and fishing and services are likely to moderate. However, it noted that headline GVA growth is likely to trail the 6.8% recorded in the Q2FY17.

As per the report, industrial growth improved to over 5.8% in Q2 from 1.6% in the first quarter. It said that improved corporate earnings, partly reflecting milder discounts and higher commodity prices, and a pick-up in mining and electricity, are expected to contribute to a sequential recovery in GVA growth in Q2FY18, offsetting the moderation in government spends and a tepid kharif harvest for several crops. It also pointed out that the significant turnaround in mining, a favourable base-effect, and supportive commodity prices, should boost mining and quarrying sub-sectors to a healthy 7.5% in the quarter. It added that electricity generation also recorded an improvement led by the thermal segment.

However, the rating agency said that the activity in the real estate sector remains subdued on account of weak consumer sentiment, led by factors such as the note-ban-led drag, full implementation of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act and Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime. It pointed that this will cap construction sector remaining low at near 2.5% in the quarter. It also expects that growth in the services sector to ease to 7.3% in Q2 from 8.7% in the first quarter.

The report further mentioned that government's non-interest revenue spend slid sharply to 0.8% in Q2 from 26.8% in Q1, reflecting the waning effect of front-loading of spending. However, it noted that available data for 12 states indicates a pickup in their revenue spend increased to 14.1% in Q2 from 10.7% in Q1. It also expects that GVA growth in public administration and defence to ease to around 6.3% from 9.5% in Q1, weighing upon the overall GVA expansion.

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