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Rising inflation dims chances of rate cut by RBI in December: ASSOCHAM

27 Nov 2017 Evaluate

The industry chamber Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) in its latest report has stated that inflation would remain a key concern both for the government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI), dimming chances of any interest rates cut in the next bi-monthly monetary policy meeting in December. It observed that as uncertainty looms over crude oil prices and vegetables, largely on the back of rising retail prices of onion and tomatoes, it is disrupting household budgets.

The report claimed that the RBI’s mandate and also its track record is that it has favoured a hard stance against inflation rather than batting for growth, while the government's friendly advice for downward rates may not be available this time around. It also said that as per the monetary policy framework, RBI has a mandate to maintain retail inflation in a band of 4 percent (+/- 2 percent) and the Consumer Price Index growth for October at 5.38 percent points towards the threshold, the central bank may not like to breach it.

ASSOCHAM has stated that while the October numbers show fuel and light inflation at 6.36 percent annualised, and vegetables at above 7 percent, onion and tomato may take the retail inflation further up in November. It noted that firming up crude oil prices are adding to the anxiety. The chamber said that going forward, both external and internal factors would weigh on the mind of the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI. It pointed out that to that extent, the macro picture may pose a challenge even as corporate India hopes for growth revival, which may now have to depend on factors other than cost of borrowing.

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