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RBI likely to keep repo rates unchanged at 6% on rise in inflation: ICRA

04 Dec 2017 Evaluate

Domestic credit rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its upcoming policy review meet, is likely to keep repo rates unchanged at 6 percent on worries of rising inflation. India’s retail inflation or consumer price index based-inflation accelerated to seven-month high of 3.58% in the month of October 2017, as compared to 3.28% in September 2017, mainly due to an increase in prices of consumer food items. RBI will come out with the policy review on December 6 after two days of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting beginning December 5.

However, the rating agency stated that the CPI inflation for October was lower than the range of 4.2-4.6 percent for the second half of FY18 that the MPC had forecast in its fourth policy review for FY18, and the recent revision in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates would ease price pressures, but certain inflation risks persist. It also pointed out that based on the expected gradual rise in currency with the public and continued working capital-led uptick in credit off-take, liquidity situation is likely to be close to neutral by mid-December 2017, with sporadic deficits anticipated around the next advance tax payment dates.

As per the report, the central bank is likely to reiterate its stance of bringing systemic liquidity closer to neutrality in the December 2017 policy review, and primarily use overnight and term repos under the LAF to manage liquidity in the near term. It pointed out that additional open market operations also seem unlikely, given the cancellation of the OMO sale scheduled for November 23. Adding further, it said that the pace of economic expansion would have to improve sharply to 7.6 percent in the second half of FY 2018 to be in line with the MPC's baseline growth forecast of 6.7 percent for the current fiscal, which seems unlikely despite a favourable base effect.

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