Indian power sector outlook stable over next 12-18 months: Moody’s

19 Dec 2017 Evaluate

The global credit rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service and its Indian arm ICRA in a joint report have kept a stable outlook for the Indian power sector over the next 12-18 months, reflecting their expectation of stable industry conditions and government policy initiatives. The report added that this will likely lead to improvements in the financial position of state-owned electricity distribution companies. Moody's also said that the government's debt restructuring of the financially weak distribution utilities under the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) will gradually improve the financial conditions of state-owned discoms, thereby alleviating off-taker risk, which is a key negative factor for the credit quality of power generators.

The report stated that India (rated Baa2 stable by Moody's) will see a change in its energy mix towards renewable, as the country adds more capacity and moves towards its commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change. However, the growth in renewable generation capacity will put pressure on conventional power generation, although most power producers are protected by availability based power purchase agreements. ICRA said the rise in India's share of renewable energy - especially in solar and wind generated electricity - in the overall capacity addition will be aided by improved tariff competitiveness, a supportive regulatory framework and strong policy support. While the medium to long-term outlook for renewable energy is positive, in the near-term, capacity additions in the wind energy sector will likely be adversely affected, due to the transition in the tariff regime to a bid-based from a feed-in-based framework.

The rating agency also said, the upward pressure on the module price level, aggressive bidding and the possible risk of anti-dumping duties being imposed could impact fresh bidding for solar projects. Also, thermal IPPs will see costs rise for power generation, because of capital expenditure requirements to comply with the tightened emission control norms required by the ministry of environment and forests, and also to ensure the operating flexibility to accommodate the increasing share of renewable energy. It added that timely approval of pass-through for such increases in cost will be critical for thermal IPPs with long term power purchase agreements (PPAs). It further said while the stressed thermal assets remain significant (60,000 MW), due to factors such as tariff non-viability, lack of long-term PPAs, uncertainty on domestic gas availability and cost overruns.

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