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India's GVA to grow marginally at 6.5% in Q3 FY18: ICRA

27 Dec 2017 Evaluate

Economic expansion in terms of gross value added (GVA) is expected to grow only marginally in the third quarter of current fiscal (Q3 FY18), on the back of weak kharif harvest and higher commodity prices. As per credit rating agency, ICRA’s latest report, GVA at basic prices would improve slightly at around 6.5% in Q3 and the same growth rate is expected for the whole fiscal year. However, the rating agency expects the country’s GVA growth to be above 7.5% in Q4 FY18, while 7% growth is expected in next fiscal year, owing to normal monsoon and the government’s commitment towards fiscal consolidation and GST.

The report also expects healthy growth in manufacturing volumes in the third quarter but expressed worries that rising commodity prices would increase input cost and this will put pressure on manufacturing margins and GVA growth of this sector in Q3 FY18. Further, ICRA noted that volume growth of mining and electricity generation sectors are expected to continue October’s down trend for remaining months of third quarter but higher commodity prices may support earning and GVA growth of these sectors in Q3 and this would support overall GVA growth.

On policy rates front, ICRA report do not expect Reserve of Bank (RBI) to commence hiking rates as the CPI inflation is forecast to persist above 5% for at least two quarters, the rating agency maintained its baseline expectation of an extended pause by the RBI on policy rates in the first half of Calendar 2018.

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