CAD to double to 1.5% of GDP in FY18 on rising commodity prices: ICRA

29 Dec 2017 Evaluate

The credit ratings agency, ICRA in its latest report has projected the current account deficit (CAD) doubling to $39 billion or 1.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fiscal year 2017-18, on rising commodity prices - especially that of crude oil that has hit a three-year peak recently. The rating agency, in September, had pegged CDA, the difference between inflows and outflows of foreign exchange based on the sale of merchandise, services and remittances, at 1.3% of GDP.

The report stated that the widening merchandise trade deficit will lead to deterioration in CAD to around between $12 billion and $15 billion. This translates to 2% to 2.3% of the GDP in the December quarter. However, seasonal factors will help the CAD shrink sharply to under $5 billion for the March quarter, settling for a yearly deficit of 1.5% of GDP, at $39 billion. So far this fiscal, the country has recorded a CAD of 2.4% in the first quarter and 1.2% in Q2.

ICRA further said that shrinkage in the March quarter will happen despite the unfavourable base effect of exports growth, and elevated expectations on import commodity prices such as crude oil, coal, steel and non-ferrous metals, to remain elevated. It also said that expectations of widening of merchandise trade deficit is largely due to the high prices of commodity imports and added that the deficit is expected to be in double- digits for the third straight month in December despite help from rising exports. Besides, the merchandise trade deficit was $14 billion in both October and November 2017.

The rating agency expects a push towards completion of export orders prior to the quarter-end as well as a seasonal decline in gold imports in December, both of which are likely to soften the merchandise trade deficit relative to the levels seen in the previous two months. On the short-term future it is expecting a sharp improvement and it said gold imports are likely to ease in Q4, relative to Q4 of FY17, which had witnessed a restocking-led spurt. It also said an unfavourable base effect may arrest the pace of growth in merchandise exports in Q4 from an expected 15% to 16% in Q3, reiterating that seasonal factors will keep the CAD under $5 billion for Q4.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×