India’s economic growth may slow down to four-year low of 6.5% in FY18: CSO

08 Jan 2018 Evaluate

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, in its First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2017-18, has stated that Indian economy is expected to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year 2017-18, as against 7.1 percent in the fiscal year 2016-17. It is even lower than the Reserve Bank’s lowered projection of 6.7 percent. Poor performance of agriculture, mining and construction sectors, along with the lingering impact of demonetisaiton and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), mainly pulled down the growth prospects of the Indian economy. Before this, the slowest expansion in GDP was in 2013-14, when it grew by 6.4 percent.

As per the CSO data, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2017-18 is likely to be Rs 129.85 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2016-17 of Rs 121.90 lakh crore. The data also showed that the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs 111.85 lakh crore in 2016-17 to Rs 118.71 lakh crore in 2017-18. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2017-18 is 6.1 percent as against 6.6 percent in 2016-17.

Among the sectors, ‘public administration, defence and other services’ is expected to register the sharpest growth of 9.4% this fiscal, followed by trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, which is expected to expand by 8.7%. ‘Electricity, gas, water supply& other utility services’ and ‘Financial, real estate & professional services’ are expected to registered a growth of 7.5% and 7.3% respectively. On the other hand, growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing', ‘mining and quarrying', ‘manufacturing' and ‘construction' sectors are estimated to be 2.1%, 2.9%, 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively.

According to the First Advance Estimates of National Income, India's per capita income, a gauge for measuring living standard, is likely to witness a slower growth of 8.3 percent at Rs 1,11,782 in FY 2017-18. In 2016-17, per capita income of Indians had grown by 9.7 percent to Rs 1,03,219. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 86,660 as compared to Rs 82,269 for the year 2016-17. The growth rate in per capita income (real terms) is estimated at 5.3 percent during 2017-18, as against 5.7 percent in the previous year.

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