Farm sector growth in FY18 likely to be higher than CSO estimate: Agriculture Ministry

09 Jan 2018 Evaluate

After the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in its first advance estimates of GDP growth for current financial year estimated India’s agriculture sector growth rate at 2.1 percent, the Agriculture Ministry has said that India’s agriculture sector is expected to grow at a much higher rate than CSO estimate, on the back of better-than-expected production of Kharif and Rabi crops. The CSO had pegged farm and allied sector growth at 2.1 percent for 2017-18, much lower than 4.9 percent achieved in the 2016-17. The farm sector growth comprises gross value added (GVA) of crops at 60 percent, livestock 20 percent and forestry 8.5 percent and fishing and aquaculture at 5.5 percent.

The Ministry in its statement said that it is optimistic about achieving a high growth rate because the Rabi, 2017 is showing a very good performance in addition to good Kharif, 2017. Consequently, the agriculture sector can be expected to register a much higher GVA for the year 2017-18, when final estimate figures are released. With regards to Kharif crops, the ministry noted that the area coverage under different crops in Kharif as of August, 2017 was below that of the previous year on account of delay in onset of monsoons in some parts of the country. However, good rainfall thereafter helped the Ministry in increasing the area coverage in accordance with Kharif targets. It added that despite the delay in onset of monsoons and relatively poorer rainfall compared to the previous year, the area coverage under Kharif finally rose to 106.55 million against the five-year average of 105.86 million.

The Agriculture Ministry also said that the GVA estimate is bound to get corrected upwards, if increased area coverage by December 2017 and concomitant production estimate in case of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops, in particular, are taken into account. It further said the livestock and fishery sector was very positive till August 2017 and by December the dominant crop sector has bounced back. If this amended and actual field situation are taken into account in computation of the GVA for agriculture sector as a whole, its growth rate can be estimated to be much higher. It also said rabi crops have been covered in an area of 58.6 million hectares, which is a very good progress. Considering that the rabi sowing continues up to first week of February, the total area under crops and resultant production will be very good.

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