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CRISIL maintains India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.6% for FY19

09 Jan 2018 Evaluate

Attributing the continuing slowdown to the after-effects of the demonetisation exercise, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation and weakness in agriculture, rating agency, CRISIL in its latest report has maintained its projection of India's economic growth in 2018-19 to 7.6 percent on the low base. The CRISIL note comes days after the Central Statistics Office (CSO) came out with its First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2017-18, in which it stated that Indian economy is expected to grow at a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year 2017-18, as against 7.1 percent in the fiscal year 2016-17.

The rating agency has stated that given the low base and the expected waning of the GST impacts going ahead, they retain their forecast of 7.6 percent real GDP growth in fiscal 2019, with private consumption leading the recovery. It noted that private consumption is expected to grow 6.3 percent in FY18, as against 8.7 percent a year before, and will remain the largest contributor to the country's GDP at 55.7 percent. Adding further, it said that in FY19 as well, growth will continue to be consumption-led as inflation will be under control and interest rates are expected to be soft. It also said that increase in government employees' salaries with the implementation of the seventh pay panel recommendations will also help. It added that the government’s focus on spending towards agriculture and rural themes will also be of help.

According to the report, the government's ambitious Rs 2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation plan over two years will ensure that the state-run banks are well positioned to support the growth. It also observed that support to growth will also come from the external sector where the global recovery should help exports, which had faced some headwinds after the GST implementation.

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