Ahead of the corporate earnings season, Credit ratings agency, Crisil Ratings in its latest report has said that India Inc’s top-line (revenue) growth is likely to hit a five-year high of 9 percent in Q3 (October-December) 2017-18. However, it noted that profits will continue to contract, on the back of rising commodity prices. Besides, it said that the aggregate revenue of companies in key sectors is also expected to grow 9 percent over same period last year on higher realisations in steel, aluminium, cement and crude oil-linked sectors, and a pick-up in consumption-driven sectors such as auto and aviation.
The rating agency said that the revenue growth, which comes after a broadbased improvement in the previous second quarter that was taken as a prelude to a cyclical upturn, is ahead of inflation by a meaningful margin now. For the listed companies, it expects a revenue increase of 8-9 percent in FY18. It also stated export linked sectors such as information technology and pharmaceuticals will disappoint, together with telecom where the incumbents are forced to slash tarriffs due to aggressive play by the newcomer Reliance Jio. Besides, Crisil Ratings mentioned that stronger performance of consumer-oriented sectors is expected to be the primary driver of growth in the second half of this fiscal with Goods and Services Tax (GST) teething troubles abating and trade channels reverting to normalcy. It highlighted that the consumption-linked sectors excluding telecom had reported a 15 percent revenue growth in the second quarter.
As per the report, for the first two quarters, companies have reported a revenue growth of 6 percent despite the impact of the GST implementation, and added that if not for the reverses in telecom, the revenue growth would have come at 10 percent. From a profitability perspective, it believes that there can be a contraction of up to 1.30 percent in the pre-tax profits. Adding further, it indicated that EBIDTA margin fell for 8 of 21 sectors in the second quarter of this fiscal, and also expects that this trend will continue. The report further said that a contraction of 1-1.30 percent in aggregate EBIDTA margin in the third quarter would intensify pressures because there’s little latitude to control cost amid rising commodity prices. It concludes that telecom services, pharma, sugar and housing sectors will see the sharpest fall in margins.
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