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  3. India’s economic growth likely to improve to 7.1% in FY19: Ind-Ra

India’s economic growth likely to improve to 7.1% in FY19: Ind-Ra

19 Jan 2018 Evaluate

Terming the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and insolvency law major drivers for the growth of Indian economy, the India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, has projected that the country's economic growth will improve to 7.1 percent in the next fiscal year 2018-19 from 6.5 percent in the current year 2017-18. It said that the growth will be supported by robust consumption demand and low commodity prices. But, it also said that for demonetisation and GST implementation, growth would not have decelerated to 7.1 percent in 2016-17 and 6.5 percent in 2017-18.

In its outlook for 2018-19, the rating agency said there will be a gradual pick-up in growth momentum owing to structural reforms like GST and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) in place. It added that while the implementation of GST is likely to benefit the economy over the medium to long term, the same cannot be said about the impact of demonetisation. It also expects with the global crude prices firming up, retail and wholesale inflation to come in at 4.6 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively in 2018-19, indicating an end to the current rate cut cycle. It further said there is still some fuzziness with respect to the intensity and the level of its future trajectory and added that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will remain in a pause mode for an extended period of time.

Ind-Ra expects fiscal deficit in 2017-18 likely to exceed the budgeted estimate of 3.2 percent and come in at 3.5 percent. The agency also expects fiscal deficit in 2018-19 to be at 3.2 percent, higher than 3 percent stated in the medium-term fiscal policy statement. Talking about the Budget, it said that despite 2018-19 being a pre-election year, it does not expect the Union Budget to be a populist budget. However, it expects some expenditure reallocation with an increased focus on the rural and agriculture sectors. On the currency front, it said that a mix of global and domestic factors will keep the Indian rupee range bound at average Rs 66.06/$ in 2018-19.

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