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  3. Nomura cuts India’s growth forecast based on different parameters

Nomura cuts India’s growth forecast based on different parameters

27 Jun 2012 Evaluate

Looking at the poor monetary and fiscal policy of the government, Nomura has cut India’s economic growth forecast to 5.8 percent from 6.7 percent; this comes as a result of weak market conditions and lack of government initiative. It has also reduced India’s GDP forecast to 6.6 percent in 2013-14 from 6.9 percent earlier. The government is targeting a GDP growth rate at about 7.6 percent is this fiscal year. India’s economic growth rate has slowed down to 6.5 in 2011-12 from that of 8.4 percent in the last two fiscals, as India’s monetary and fiscal policy are stagnant and in doldrums. Due to persistent high inflation the government has not been able to cut interest rates, which has affected the liquidity situation in the economy.

Nomura further opined that the longer Asia’s third largest economy stays in current crisis amid lack of reforms the government will have to employ even bigger measures to get the economy back on the higher growth trajectory. The Japanese brokerage firm has upwardly revised its wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation forecast to 7.6 percent in the current fiscal from the previous fiscal of 7.1 percent due to high food prices and depreciation of rupee.

It also revised upward India’s fiscal deficit to 5.8 percent of GDP in the current fiscal from 5.2 percent earlier. The government is trying to bring down the fiscal deficit to 5.1 percent in the year 2012-13 from 5.8 percent in the previous fiscal year. Nomura’s decision to cut India’s growth forecast comes after credit rating agency Moody retained a stable rating on India.

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