Emerging markets growth slows due to anti-inflation policies: Fitch

29 Jun 2012 Evaluate

Asia’s three biggest economies are suffering due to the tight monetary policies enforced to fight inflation in 2010-11, the global rating agency Fitch said. The minimal improvement in India and China’s financial health has come in the way of positive credit rating momentum in emerging Asia.

Apart from this, there is also home grown source of weakness in the top three emerging economies which is hindering counter inflationary policies. The latest statement from the agency comes close on the heels of downgrading India’s credit outlook to negative due to corruption and lack of reforms.

In May 2012, India’s wholesale inflation was 7.55 percent, and when looking at the retail level the consumer price index inflation was 10.36 percent. The repo rate has been cut 13 times between March 2010 and October 2011 to tackle the economy against inflation.

The RBI, in its mid quarter policy on June 18, said that reduction in policy interest rate will not support economic growth rather it could exacerbate inflationary pressure. As India’s economic growth has fell to nine-year low of 5.3 percent for the three months ended March 2012, while the overall growth for 2011-12 stood at 6.5 percent.

Fitch had downgraded India GDP growth to 6.5 percent in 2012-13 down from previous projection of 7.5 percent. It said that positive rating momentum in emerging Asia has delayed amid slower improvement in sovereign balance sheets and for some countries with concerns over high and rising leverage in the private sector. Fitch is pessimist on China while at same time it is optimist about Korea.

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