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GVA growth to record sequential recovery to 6.8% in Q3FY18: ICRA

27 Feb 2018 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that it expects the growth of India’s gross value added (GVA) at basic prices in year-on-year (YoY) terms to record a sequential recovery to 6.8 percent in Q3 (October-December) of FY18, on the back of improvement in the services and industrial sectors even as the expansion of agriculture, forestry and fishing is likely to display some moderation. Besides, it indicated that the country’s real GVA growth was at 6.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017-18.

According to the report, economic activity remained subdued during first half of fiscal year 2018, partly on account of the structural transition to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), however, signs of a pick-up in economic growth are starting to appear. Elaborating further, it said that higher growth in volumes in manufacturing and some of the services sub-sectors and in the government's expenditure, a favourable base effect and an improvement in corporate earnings are expected to contribute to a sequential recovery in the y-o-y growth of GVA at basic prices in Q3. Besides, it expects that growth in the services sector to record a base-effect led pick-up to nearly 8.8 percent in Q3 from 7.1 percent in Q2, reflecting the improvement recorded by indicators such as bank credit, cargo handled at major ports, passengers carried by domestic airlines and foreign tourist arrivals.

ICRA further stated that a favourable base effect would continue to support volume growth in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, and financial, real estate and professional services in the fourth quarter. It also expects that GDP and GVA growth to improve to around 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Notwithstanding an expected pick-up in H2, it expects GVA growth to ease to 6.5 percent in FY18 from 7.1 percent in FY17, while GDP growth is expected to decline to 6.7 percent in FY18 from 7.1 percent in FY17.


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