India’s GDP growth to improve sharply to 7.5% in FY19: Crisil Ratings

06 Mar 2018 Evaluate

With rising domestic consumption, policy push and synchronised global growth, credit ratings agency, Crisil Ratings in its latest report has projected that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will improve sharply to 7.5% in the next fiscal year 2018-19 (FY19) and added that the country’s GDP will grow at the rate of 6.5% in the current fiscal year (FY18). Besides, the Economic Survey 2018 has pegged India’s growth in the range of 7-7.5% for FY19. However, the rating agency said that the key risks to its forecasts stem from inability to resolve Goods and Services Tax (GST)-related issues quickly and fiscal stress leading to a cut in capex by the government.

The report titled ‘The FouRs of Growth’ has stated that the country’s growth dynamics and its sustainability depend on the four thrust vectors - resolution of stressed assets in banking sector, rural rejuvenation, relentless implementation of reforms and rising global growth. It also said that the key engines supporting the upturn are largely domestic and policy-driven, though a synchronous upturn in global growth will provide some tailwind. It added that the upturn in growth will be aided partly by the low-base effect.

With gross non-performing assets (NPAs) in the public sector banks (PSBs) touching 10.5%, the ratings agency said that the asset quality issues plaguing PSBs has reached to a point that no meaningful and sustainable economic recovery is plausible without beginning of a resolution process. It also said that while haircuts are likely to be deep, the scale and timeframe of recovery will mark a watershed for the country's banking system. It further added that fresh slippages will moderate and NPAs will likely peak at 11% by March 2019, with improving economy and turning credit cycle.

Crisil Ratings stated the focus on demand and job creation through spending on rural and labour-intensive infrastructure space is likely to support growth next fiscal, and push demand in the consumer sectors. It further said that the sustainability of recovery also depends on effective implementation of key reforms such as GST, the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act of 2016, and the Uday rolled out in the last few years. It also said global growth is gathering pace, and the momentum in global trade is expected to continue in 2018 as well and it should buoy exports, but the pick-up is unlikely to be material, given poor local infrastructure, higher cost of capital and labour productivity issues.

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