Highlighting waning influence of one-off policy-related factor, the global credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings in its latest ‘Global Economic Outlook’ has forecasted that the Indian economy is likely to grow at the rate of 7.3% in the next fiscal (FY19) and further to 7.5% in FY20. However, for the current fiscal year, the rating agency predicted lower growth rate of 6.5% as compared to Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) estimation of 6.6%.
Fitch noted that the currency in circulation is back to pre-demonetisation level in mid-2017 and is now increasing steadily, similar to the previous trend. Besides, it also highlighted that Goods and Services Tax (GST) led disruptions have slowly diminished. It further said that 2018-19 budget envisages a slower pace of fiscal consolidation and therefore should support the near-term growth outlook and added that the measures included in the budget such as a minimum price support and free health insurance will benefit low-income earners and will also support rural demand. It further listed various initiative reforms taken by the government for the sectors like infrastructure and banking and noted that policies come on top of substantial road construction plans and a bank recapitalisation plan would also support the country’s growth in the medium term.
On inflation front, the rating agency said that headline inflation picked up, due to accelerating food prices and it expects the Reserve Bank of India to start raising interest rates next year as growth gains further traction. Besides, it also expects inflationary pressures to remain quite high. However, it noted that fuel price increases have been contained by the government's decision to roll back excise duties to keep pump prices stable in the face of rising oil prices.
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