After two transitory shocks that is the demonetisation and implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest G-20 Surveillance Note has said that India should see its growth picking up in the current year. However, it added that China’s growth is likely to fall gradually due to the anticipated withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and moderating credit impulse.
On the global front, the report titled ‘Global Prospects and Policy Challenges’ stated that globally growth is expected to return to a weaker trend. In the US, a higher growth is projected amid buoyant external demand and the expected impact of tax changes and higher federal fiscal spending. It added that emerging economies present a more heterogenous picture. It further said that in emerging Europe, activity will remain buoyant amid strong export demand from the euro area, and the recovery in Brazil and Russia is expected to firm.
According to the IMF, the recent recovery in investment can add to potential output growth, after downward revisions over the past years. However, medium-term prospects are still held down by a host of factors. It also warned that population aging, insufficient reforms, and the slowed accumulation of human capital will likely continue to weigh on growth prospects. It also expressed concern that in the absence of structural reforms that facilitate adjustment and the use of the tax-benefit system to mitigate the divide, could threaten making growth less inclusive and it could also fuel political discontent that deters reforms and thus undermines potential growth going forward.
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