Ind-Ra upgrades India’s economic growth forecast to 7.4% for FY19

05 Apr 2018 Evaluate

With the expectations of strong agricultural and industrial growth, the India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, has upgraded its India’s economic growth forecast to 7.4% for the fiscal year 2018-18 (FY19) from 7.1% forecasted earlier. It said that overall economic growth will get a push with higher growth in agriculture (expectation of normal rainfall and assumption of even rainfall distribution over space and time) and industrial sectors on the production front, while on the expenditure front, private and government expenditure coupled with green shoots emerging in investment spending will boost the growth.

However, the rating agency expressed concern that the Indian economy is facing a number of headwinds, ranging from the non-performing assets of the banking system and elevated bond yields to increased trade protectionism and tightening global financial conditions. Besides, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has granted banks the option to spread their provisioning for marked-to-market losses on 'available for sale' and 'held for trading' portfolios for Q3FY18 and Q4FY18 equally up to four quarters. Thus, it expects this to provide relief from accounting perspective to banks, which are facing the impact of a sharp increase in G-sec yields. Despite the status quo by the RBI on policy repo rate since August 2017, yields in the bond market have risen on account of concerns over rising inflation, the central government’s fiscal slippage and an increase in state governments’ borrowings.

Ind-Ra said that the central government’s borrowing plan for 1HFY19 eased the short-term pressure on the debt market, but it cautions that higher market borrowings in 2HFY19, if accompanied by adverse fiscal and inflationary developments, could exert significant pressure on the debt market. On the key policy rates, it said that the immediate pressure on the RBI to raise policy rates has subsided, as the recent data for both wholesale and retail inflation came in softer than anticipated. Wholesale and retail inflation eased to 2.48% and 4.44%, respectively, in February 2018 from 2.84% and 5.07% for January 2018. Therefore, it said that the probability of a status quo on policy rates is quite high during FY19.

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