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Pick-up in India’s GDP growth optimistic for asset backed securities: Moody’s

13 Apr 2018 Evaluate

Global rating agency, Moody's Investors Service in its latest report has said that the pick-up in India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is optimistic for asset-backed securities (ABS), because such growth will support the ability of borrowers to earn income and repay loans backing ABS deals, including auto loans and loans against property to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Besides, it expects that growth in the Indian economy will pick up to 7.6% in 2018 from 6.2% in 2017.

The rating agency has stated that Auto ABS delinquency rates will remain stable at current levels through 2018, but delinquency rates for small and medium size enterprise ABS backed by loans against property will continue to rise, even as the higher economic growth in India. On Indian auto ABS, it explained that they are mainly backed by commercial vehicle (CV) loans that will benefit from higher demand for the transportation of freight, as economic growth picks up. It added that the improved demand to move freight will increase the CV operators’ revenues and therefore improve their ability to repay auto loans.

According to the report, while rising fuel costs will moderate the benefit of improving economic growth for CV operators, overall, auto ABS delinquency rates should stay stable throughout 2018. Moreover, it noted that the pick-up in economic growth will support domestic consumption in India. It also said that such a situation is positive for loan against property borrowers, who typically own MSMEs that are highly dependent on consumer demand. However, it stated that delinquency rates for SME ABS will continue to rise in 2018 from the levels in 2017, because of the ongoing disruption to the MSME sector caused by the goods and services tax (GST).

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