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India’s solar capacity addition likely to register 40% fall in FY19: ICRA

17 Apr 2018 Evaluate

Domestic credit rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that India’s solar power capacity addition is likely to register 40% fall at 4-4.5 Giga Watts (GW) in the financial year 2019 from last year. It pointed out that the projected fall in capacity addition is mainly because of subdued trend in tendering of solar projects since June 2017 in the midst of several factors such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) roll-out, an upward pressure on PV module price levels internationally and continued uncertainty on safeguard duty and anti-dumping duty post the petitions filed by solar module manufacturer associations between June and Dec 2017.

According to the report, subdued trend in award of solar projects is also evident from the fact that only 4.5 GW capacity was auctioned and awarded in calendar year (CY) 2017 as against 7.3 GW in CY 2016. It also noted that with expected decline in PV module price level, long-term debt availability at cost competitive rate and aggressive bidding by independent power producers (IIPs), weighted average solar bid tariff during CY 2017 declined sharply to Rs 3 per unit from Rs 5 per unit in CY 2016.

Though, the rating agency stated that the declining solar bid tariffs levels remain favourable to state-owned distribution utilities, the hardening of module prices over the last 6 to 9 month period along with import duty incidence on module imports (to the extent of 7.5% since October 2017) has led to viability related concerns especially for the projects with tariff below Rs 3 per unit, also given the uncertainty on safeguard duty front. It added that in this context, the viability of such tariffs critically hinged on structuring of debt with longer tenures, competitive funding costs and the ability of the project developers to keep the cost of modules within the budgeted levels.

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