IMF maintains India’s GDP growth forecast at 7.4% for 2018

18 Apr 2018 Evaluate

Acknowledging structural reforms undertaken by the government in recent years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) has maintained its forecast for India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.4% for 2018 and 7.8% for 2019. It noted that India would re-emerge as one of the fastest growing major economies with growth picking up after falling sharply in the second quarter of 2017, due to factors such as demonetisation and goods and services tax (GST). However, the IMF growth rate projection is unchanged since October.

As per the WEO, the latest forecast is unchanged with the short-term firming of growth driven by a recovery from the transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national GST, and supported by strong private consumption growth. It also stated that India has made progress on structural reforms in the recent past, including through the implementation of the GST, which will help reduce internal barriers to trade, increase efficiency, and improve tax compliance. It added that the medium-term growth outlook for India is strong, an important challenge is to enhance inclusiveness.

Expressing some caution, the IMF said that India’s high public debt and recent failure to achieve the budget’s deficit target call for continued fiscal consolidation into the medium term to further strengthen fiscal policy credibility. The main priorities for lifting constraints on job creation and ensuring that the demographic dividend is not wasted are to ease labour market rigidities, reduce infrastructure bottlenecks, and improve educational outcomes. It also said that growth in China and India last year was supported by resurgent net exports and strong private consumption, respectively, while investment growth slowed.

On the global growth, the report said that global economy is on course to grow 3.9% this year, the fastest pace since 2011, with every major economy poised to grow for the second year in a row. However, it warned that performance could be curtailed by trade barriers. Besides, it said China is forecast to slow from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018 and further to 6.4% in 2019.

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