Growth in Indian service sector accelerates to 3 month high

03 Aug 2011 Evaluate

Despite the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 50 basis point hike in its short term lending and borrowing rates, service sectors registered fastest growth in the last three months in July on the back of strong growth in new business, but the input prices also rose faster.  
 
The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, based on a survey of around 400 companies, rose to 58.2 in July from 56.1 in June, staying above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the 27th consecutive month. The HSBC India Composite Index which includes both the manufacturing and service sectors surged to 57.9 in July from 56.8 in June due to improvement in demand and companies getting new customers.

However, input cost surged sharply in July to four months high, due to increase in wages, fuel prices, while backlogs of work increased after three months of contraction -- indicating that inflationary pressures are set to go higher. On the other hand, overall employment growth slowed to the weakest in the current ten-month period of expansion in July, and was only fractional. While staffing levels in the manufacturing sector increased for the first time since October 2010, this was largely offset by job cuts in the service sector, which were the first in 28 months.

Commenting on the India Services PMI survey, chief economist for India and ASEAN at HSBC, Leif Eskesen, said “The service sector is humming to its own tune, with business activity and new business improving over the previous month, in spite of policy rate hikes and high inflation. Moreover, input costs and prices charged accelerated. With backlogs of work increasing, inflation pressures are set to remain significant and persistent. This also means that the RBI is not quite yet done with tightening.”

The India’s manufacturing sector saw 20 month low growth in the month of July, on the back of increasing interest rates and moderating global demand. This moderation in manufacturing sector is viewed as the adverse impact of RBI’s non-stop hike in its key policy rates. Since March 2010, the RBI has been increasing its key policy rates to check inflation. Headline inflation for the month of June surged to 9.44% from 9.06% in May.

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