FY13 growth foreseen under 6%; may gain pace post 2014 elections

10 Jul 2012 Evaluate

According to a report based on a survey done by global bank - Standard Chartered, India’s GDP will slide below 6% in FY13 and will only return to 9% after 2014 general election. The 125 corporate clients of the bank from south-India who participated in the survey, had expressed pessimistic views about India’s growth story, as many as 72% of them are foreseeing GDP below 6% while 20% forecast it to nearly 5%.

A key question regarding revival of economic growth to pre-2008 crisis level of near 9%, nearly 86% of the participant said India will achieve 9% growth before 2016 with 80% among them said this figure will be achieved between 2014-16. Most of the participants expect that economy might improve after the general election of 2014 and this will change the political scenario that will be more conductive to economic growth.

There has been a rate cut of GDP by the analysts following a release of official data in May which shows that the growth rate has fallen to a nine year low during the last quarter of FY2012, meanwhile the growth of entire fiscal was 6.5%. This was much lower than the one observed at the height of the post-Lehman credit crisis of 2008.

The last cut in forecast comes from Nomura when it revised the growth estimate to 5.5% the previous week showing stagnancy in monetary and fiscal policy. While the government is targeting a GDP growth of 7.6% for the current fiscal, in house Stan Chart economist have forecasted it to be around 6.2%.

The slowdown in economy has resulted due to variety of factors weak external trade situation that has increased the gap of current account deficit to its lowest forcing the rupee to depreciate against the dollar. While local issues like policy paralysis and the elevated interest rates of RBI has made the way for inflation to increase.

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