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Share of diesel PVs to fall below 25% post BSVI implementation: ICRA

25 May 2018 Evaluate

Credit rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that the share of diesel passenger vehicles (PVs) in the domestic market, which dropped to 38 percent in 2017-18, is likely to fall below 25 percent post implementation of BSVI emission norms from April 2020. It pointed out that regular increase in the retail price of diesel in small doses every month since January 2013 has significantly narrowed down the retail price gap between petrol and diesel fuels, making cost economics of owning a diesel PV relatively less favourable now than in the past.

According to the report, as there is a high correlation between petrol and diesel price gap, lower fuel price gap has resulted in customer preference shifting away from diesel vehicles. Moreover, it said that given superior fuel economy of hybrid cars, hybridisation has also reduced importance of diesel models. It noted that lastly, the implementation of BSVI norms too will significantly widen the cost differential between petrol and diesel cars, leading to the eventual decline of share of diesel vehicles. It added that once BSVI emission norms come into force from April 2020, prices of diesel cars are expected to go up by about Rs 75,000 as compared to relatively modest Rs 20,000 of petrol cars.

The report further highlighted that currently, a diesel PV is priced about Rs 90,000 - Rs 1 lakh higher as compared to its petrol counterpart but with advent of Euro VI norms, this gap will increase further to Rs 1.5 lakh to Rs 1.75 lakh, thereby further reducing advantage of higher fuel efficiency. It also said that small car buyers will therefore find diesel cars uneconomical due to higher break-even. However, it noted that SUVs will continue to be dominated by diesel, though their share too is expected to reduce to sub-60 percent level over next 4 years from over 80 percent level at present.

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