The Industry body, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in its latest Economic Outlook Survey has forecasted India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 7.1% in the fourth quarter of FY18. It also said that for the full year 2017-18 growth is estimated at 6.6%. The survey, based on opinion of economists, projected the annual economic growth for FY19 at 7.4% with a minimum and maximum of 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively.
However, the report also expressed some concerns on external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.1% of GDP for 2018-19. It added that the surge in oil prices has emerged as a major risk factor and can weigh down heavy on India’s external position and overall growth prospects, and the weakening rupee is further adding strain on the imports.
For FY19, the FICCI said that the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.2%, also industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.7% and 8.4% respectively. Besides, the median growth forecast for IIP has been put at 6.5% for the year 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.0% and 7.0% respectively. On the inflation front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been forecasted at 4.6% and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) has been projected at 3.5%, for FY19.
As per the survey respondents, the rupee might continue to remain under pressure during the remaining part of the year. They also felt that the brewing trade war can impact India indirectly, if not directly, as the country is deeply integrated with global economy and believed that protectionist measures could undermine the multilateral trading system governed by WTO rules.
