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India’s CAD may widen in FY19 on higher crude oil prices, weak rupee: Ind-Ra

06 Jun 2018 Evaluate

The India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, in its latest report has said that higher crude oil prices coupled with weak rupee, if sustained for more than a quarter, will have an adverse impact on India’s current account position, inflation, monetary policy stance and fiscal balance. The report stated that the current account deficit (CAD) could widen $22 billion-31 billion in FY19, if crude basket averages $68-72.86/bbl and rupee averages 66.6-67 per dollar for FY19. It added that wholesale inflation could also increase 70-80bp from its current forecast of 3.4% and retail inflation 30-35bp from its current forecast of 4.3%.

The ratings agency also said that the value added tax imposed by the states is on ad valorem basis. Thus, with a rise in oil prices, the state governments garner higher revenue from the sale of same quantity of oil as opposed to the central government whose excise duty is fixed in terms of Rs/litre. Therefore, a surge in crude oil prices gives the state governments more headroom to rationalise the tax rate without compromising much on their fiscal arithmetic.

On the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) policy rate, Ind-Ra stated that the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep the policy rate unchanged in its upcoming review. Although the MPC minutes from April’s policy review indicate a potential shift in the RBI’s liquidity stance to ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ from current ‘neutral’ stance, it believes the MPC will wait for the outturn of monsoon and its distribution, and further movement in crude oil prices before deciding on the rate hike.

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