The global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 7.4 per cent for FY19 as against a growth estimation of 7.3 per cent earlier. The rating agency has also projected a GDP growth of 7.5 per cent for FY20. However, it mentioned that there are concern regarding higher finance costs and rising oil prices. The rating agency has protected global oil price to stay around $70 per barrel in 2018, up from $54.9 a barrel last year. It is expecting oil price to ease at around $65 a barrel next year. Moreover, the rating agency has cited that the rupee has been among the worst performers vis-a-vis Asian currencies this year, although the depreciation was more muted than during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode.
The Indian economy grew at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. In the fourth quarter (January-March) the GDP grew at 7.7 per cent. The global rating agency said that India has better macroeconomic fundamentals than in 2013 and very low foreign ownership rates in the domestic government bond market, but the current account deficit has been widening as a result of rising oil prices, reviving domestic demand and poor manufacturing export performance.
In addition, Fitch projected retail inflation to be five per cent by the end of 2018. It said inflation has picked up since mid-2017, despite food inflation being muted. The rise in the oil price and the INR depreciation should add to price pressure in the coming months, although it expects inflation to be contained within the upper band of the RBI's target range.
Further, Fitch retained the global growth forecast at 3.3 per cent in 2018 and 3.2 per cent for 2019, reflecting the disappointment over the distribution of growth, with shortfalls in a number of smaller economies. It said however that expansion will be on-track or slightly better in the world’s two largest economies the US and China. It also said the near-term global growth prospects remain robust despite rising trade tensions and political risks.
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