Bond yields drop post the release of better than expected May IIP data

12 Jul 2012 Evaluate

Pre IIP Data Scenario:

Bond yields edged lower ahead of the release of May’s industrial output data, that would provide cues on Reserve Bank of India’s stance in its upcoming monetary policy review on July 31, though even core inflation data due on July 16 would be a key for cues. Weak output strengthens the case for the central to cut interest rates at its July 31 policy review. Industry’s experts expect India’s index of industrial production (IIP), a key measure of industrial output, to grow at 1.8 per cent, suggesting only a modest growth in supply parameters.

On the global front, US Treasuries yields continued to gyrate past 5 week lows on Thursday as weak Australian jobs data, which added to concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth, bolstered the demand for safe haven assets. Meanwhile, Brent crude stayed above $100 per barrel on Thursday, as uncertainty over whether the US Federal Reserve would launch more stimulus measures sapped investors' appetite for riskier assets.

Back home, the yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 were trading lower by 2 basis points to 8.12% from its previous close of 8.14% on Wednesday.

The benchmark five-year interest rates were up by 7 basis points at 7.01% from its previous close of 6.94% on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Government of India have announced the sale (re-issue) of four dated securities for  Rs 16,000 crore on July 13, 2012 (i) “8.07 percent Government Stock 2017” for a notified amount of  Rs 4,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; (ii) “8.15 percent Government Stock 2022” for a notified amount of  Rs 6,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; (iii) “8.97 percent Government Stock 2030” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; and (iv) “8.33 percent Government Stock 2036” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction. The auctions will be conducted using uniform price method.

Post IIP Data Scenario:

Registering a better than expected pace of growth, India’s index of industrial production (IIP), a key measure of industrial output, grew by 2.4% in May 2012 at 170.2, from the same period in the past fiscal, against the expectations of 1.8%. Moreover, the cumulative growth for the period April-May 2012-13 stood at 0.8% over the corresponding period of the previous year.

However, downward revision in April’s month IIP data to -0.9% from 0.1% earlier, also led to risk aversion, which in turned favoured safe haven treasuries.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 were trading lower by 4 basis points to 8.10% from its previous close of 8.14% on Wednesday.

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