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Demand for imported coal to increase to 62 MT in FY19: Ind-Ra

22 Jun 2018 Evaluate

Anticipating a 4 percent rise in coal availability to the power sector, the India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that demand for imported coal will increase to 62 million tonne (MT) in FY19 as compared to 56 MT in FY18 to meet this incremental generation. Therefore, it pointed out that there could be higher usage of imported coal in FY19 than that in FY16-FY18, when imported coal usage dropped.

Considering a 6-7 percent rise in electricity demand in the current fiscal, the report said that coal-based power generation is likely to increase to 996 billion units from 951 billion units. It stated that short-term power prices would continue to be determined by lower-than-required growth in domestic coal output. It added that this could lead to increased reliance on imported coal. Also, short-term power prices would remain range-bound at Rs 3.75-4.25 per unit in FY19 as against Rs 3.25 per unit FY18.

Besides, it noted that given the expectation of healthy power demand growth in FY19 and thermal-based capacity remaining the mainstay of power generation in India, domestic coal availability becomes a key determinant in deciding short-term power prices. It added that if domestic coal production grows at a lower rate than the demand growth rate, the reliance on imported coal could go up.

The ratings agency further said that in such a situation, short-term power prices would be determined by the marginal cost of energy production undertaken using imported coal. It stated that to ensure higher domestic coal availability to power producers, the government has increased the share of coal allocation to the power sector by diverting a part from other sectors.  It noted that this has led to higher coal availability for the power sector.

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