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High oil price biggest risk to India’s GDP growth: Moody’s

05 Jul 2018 Evaluate

Global credit rating agency, Moody’s Investors Services in its latest report has said that high oil price is the biggest risk to India’s Gross domestic product (GDP) growth. However, it also said that risks to sovereign credit dynamics from oil has lessened in recent years following subsidy reforms to petroleum and diesel fuel and only liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene oil remain subsidized. It does not expect oil prices to remain elevated for an extended period, but this possibility remains a downside risk. Besides, it indicated that the price of Indian basket of crude surged from $66 a barrel in April to around $75 a barrel at present.

Talking on the recapitalisation plan for public sector banks, Moody’s said that although they expects the recapitalisation package to be sufficient to meet the minimum regulatory capital needs, it will be insufficient to support credit growth. It also said that banks have not been able to raise new capital from the equity markets as planned under the government’s recapitalisation measures. Further, it mentioned that in October 2017, the union government unveiled an ambitious plan to infuse Rs 2.11 lakh crore capital over the next two years into public sector banks (PSBs) that are saddled with high, non-performing assets (NPAs). Of this, Rs 1.35 lakh crore is to come from the sale of recapitalisation bonds. The remaining Rs 76,000 crore will be through budgetary allocation and raising of funds by banks from the markets.

The report also expects that the government will achieve 3.3 percent fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal, which will end in March 2019. It said “While we see risks to achieving both budgeted revenue and spending targets, in our view the government would likely cut back on planned capital spending, as in past years, to offset any potential slippage.”

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