June inflation drops at 7.25%; beats expectations

16 Jul 2012 Evaluate

Offering little relief to Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the wholesale price index (WPI), India's main inflation gauge, rose at surprisingly lower-than-expected 7.25 percent for the month of June, as compared to 7.55% (Provisional) for the previous month and 9.51 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

The much awaited figure, was also way below than the consensus estimates of 7.60 percent. Meanwhile, build up inflation in the financial year so far was reported at 1.99 percent as compared to a build-up of 2.41 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. However, April month’s inflation figure was revised sharply higher from 7.23 percent to 7.50 percent.

The index for primary articles group, which has a weightage of 20.12 percent in overall WPI, rose 0.1 percent to 216.4 from 216.1 for the previous month, largely because of 1.4 percent jump in index of ‘Food Articles’.

The index for ‘Food Articles’ group rising to 209.2 from 206.3 for the previous month continued to drive the headline numbers.  Meanwhile, the index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group declined by 2.6 percent to 193.5 (Provisional) from 198.6 (Provisional) for the previous month.

The index for fuel and power group with a weightage of 14.91percent in WPI too declined by 0.4 percent to 178.2 from 178.9 due to lower prices of  light diesel oil (7percent), aviation turbine fuel and furnace oil (6 percent each) and naphtha (4 percent).  However, the prices of petrol (7 percent) moved up. Meanwhile, the index for Manufactured Products, which carries weight of almost 65 percent in the WPI, rose by 0.5 percent to 144.3 from 143.6 for the previous month.

Although the numbers have come lower than expectation but still remains above the comfort level of the RBI. The connoisseur are of the beliefs that lower than expected numbers would cast no impact on World’s most aggressive Central bank’s anti-inflationary stance during its next mid-quarterly policy review on July 31. RBI, like previous Mid-Quarterly policy review, this time around also is expected to maintain its status Quo on key policy rates.

 

 

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