States’ fiscal position is under pressure again in FY18: RBI

13 Jul 2018 Evaluate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its study on state finances based on state budgets has said that higher expenditure on salaries and farm loan waivers, coupled with a revenue shortfall on GST implementation, led to a slippage of 0.35 per cent in states’ fiscal targets to 3.1 per cent in FY18. This is the third consecutive year where the states have failed to meet their gross fiscal deficit (GFD) target, despite expectations of an improvement on higher devolution from the Centre. 

The apex bank highlighted, in the last financial year, (FY18), farm loan waivers touched 0.32 per cent of the GDP as against budget estimates of 0.27 per cent, and more such moves are pending for the fiscals ahead. States which have announced the waivers have also reported a decline in capital expenditure, and development has also been a casualty because of it. Waivers impact credit discipline, vitiate credit culture and dis-incentivise borrowers to repay loans, thus engendering moral hazard. Hikes in salaries, mainly as a higher proportion of states implement proposals in line with the seventh pay panel, resulted in 0.09 per cent slippage on the revenue expenditure. There was a 0.27 per cent impact in the GFD on account of the revenue shortfall, and the study attributed the same to implementation of the goods and services tax (GST). The decline in states’ tax revenues is essentially associated with the pending accounting issues related to GST implementation.

The central bank further stated that for Current financial year (FY19), states are hoping for a 0.2 per cent revenue surplus as against a revenue deficit of 0.4 per cent as per the revised estimates, which will lead to an overall GFD of 2.6 per cent, against 3.1 per cent in FY18.  At a country-wide level, farm loan waivers alone contributed to a third of the overall slippage worries, with a 0.05 per cent slippage of the overall 0.13 per cent on revenue expenditure. It reiterated its concerns on the ‘moral hazard’ farm loan waivers, saying their track record for improving productivity is ‘unproven’.   

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