India’s CAD likely to touch $16-17 billion in Q1FY19: ICRA

20 Jul 2018 Evaluate

Credit rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that India’s current account deficit (CAD) is likely to touch $16-17 billion or 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the Q1 (April-June) of 2018-19. For the full year, it said that the gap may scale a six-year high of $67-72 billion. Besides, it mentioned that CAD, difference between the value of all imports and the value of all exports, was $15 billion in Q1FY18 and for the full year of FY18 it stood at 1.9 percent of the GDP.

According to the report, factoring in an average crude price of $75 a barrel in FY19 against $56 in FY18 and a 6 percent rise in net imports, net oil imports are likely to rise to $98-100 billion in FY19 from $69 billion in FY18. Given the current commodity prices, it expects merchandise exports and imports to expand by 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively, in FY19, widening the merchandise trade deficit to $187-192 billion, from $160 billion in the last fiscal year. However, it said that services trade surplus and remittances are likely to improve by 6-9 percent each, thanks to a weaker rupee.

The rating agency further stated that annualised rise in CAD is likely to continue for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q1, driven by higher commodity prices and demand for imports of machinery and electronic goods, amid a contraction in exports of readymade garments, gems and jewellery and iron ore. It also noted that following the surge in crude prices, net import bill related to petroleum products soared 50.1 percent to $22.5 billion in Q1 from $15 billion.  But, it also pointed out that merchandise trade deficit related to non-oil, non-precious items rose a moderate 11.9 percent to $15.8 billion from $14.2 billion, which was led by a sizeable spike in imports of machinery, iron & steel, coal and electronics. But this was offset by a contraction in exports of readymades and iron ore.

The report has said that a weaker rupee and higher crude prices are likely to have supported remittances which would prevent a sharper worsening of the current account deficit. It also said that the widening of the merchandise trade deficit to a 61 -month high $16.6 billion in June has fuelled concerns regarding the near-term CAD outlook. It added that unless commodity prices plunge, monthly merchandise trade deficit may average $15.5-16 billion over the rest of the fiscal, resulting in a sombre outlook for CAD.

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