State Bank of India’s (SBI) economic research wing has said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will go for status quo in key policy rates in its August policy review. It noted that the only reason why the RBI may go for a hike will be to satiate the self fulfilling prophecy of market expectations of a rate hike to stem the rupee depreciation. It pointed out that risks to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which rose to a five-month high of 5.0 percent in June, are evenly balanced, and hike in the minimum support price (MSP) of kharif crops would only statistically push up consumer price inflation by 0.73 percent. However, it added that such an eventuality is unlikely.
It highlighted that the impact from MSP can also be negated by the decline in oil prices which have given a breather to the economy. With concerns being raised on the surge in core inflation or the price rise excluding energy and food, it said that the rise is not broad based and expected the number to come down to 4.5 percent by March from the 6.5 percent for the June quarter. However, it stated that food prices may move up, particularly so for cereals, due to the uneven spatial distribution of the monsoon.
RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its three-day meeting on July 30 and announce its decision on the third bi-monthly policy of the current fiscal on August 1. In its last review in June, it had voted unanimously for a rate hike of 0.25 percent.
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