Global rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) has said that debt-ridden Indian banks are set to strengthen over the next two years as stressed loans are cleared and capital injections from the government shore up eroded capital bases. It noted that the ratings on the banks are more likely to be raised than lowered in the next 2 years. However, it pointed out that weak risk management and internal-control practices limit the potential for considerable upside.
In its report titled 'The Worst Is Almost Over For India's Banks', S&P estimates that Indian banks' recognised non-performing loans (NPLs) now cover a substantial part of weak loans in the system, which comprise about 13-15% of total loans. Besides, it said that a turnaround in the earning performance of India's banks should take place in fiscal 2020 (ending 31 March, 2020). However, it warned that the expected recovery in the banking sector could get delayed if large unexpected NPLs materialise in the agriculture sector. It further cautioned that the loan-against-property segment may also be vulnerable.
The rating agency said this more realistic recognition, coupled with rebounding corporate profits, and quicker resolution of non-performing assets under the new bankruptcy law, will help banks gradually recover from a protracted bad-debt cycle. With more stringent provisions introduced by the Reserve bank of India, it believed that banks will increasingly find it more difficult to window-dress accounts to hide the true level of weak assets. In addition, it said that the government's Rs 2.1 lakh crore bank recapitalisation plan will help shore up depleted capital positions.
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