Economic growth of India to improve in coming quarters: CII-ASCON

13 Aug 2018 Evaluate

A joint survey carried out by the industry body, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and ASCON has stated that India’s economic growth will improve further in the coming quarters on account of recovery in domestic demand as also the investment cycle. It highlighted that the demand and investment will be supported by better consumption patterns due to favourable monsoon, moderation in inflation and the onset of festive season.

Besides, it showed that the current expectations on the investment outlook for the next two months also points towards an impending recovery in investment cycle supported by improving capacity utilization levels amidst domestic demand recovery. Further, a continuous push to structural reforms such as GST, PSU bank recapitalization and time-bound insolvency resolution would also support the recovery. The survey tracked the performance of 70 sectors during the first quarter of the current fiscal (FY19), as against the year-ago period.

The survey witnessed fewer sectors anticipating negative growth trends, which clearly points towards improvement in the economic environment. It showed a sharp increase in the sectors witnessing ‘Excellent’ growth (>20%) in April-June 2018-19, over the year-ago period. The share of sectors witnessing ‘Excellent’ growth has improved to 14.3% (10 out of 70 sectors) in Q1 FY19 from 5.7% (4 out of 70) in Q1 FY18. At the same time, the share of sectors recording ‘High’ growth and ‘Moderate’ growth has improved marginally while the share of sectors witnessing ‘Low’ growth (<0%) has come down substantially.

The share of sectors registering ‘High’ growth inched up to 21.4% in the first quarter (15 out of 70) from 20% (14 out of 70) in Q1 FY18 whereas sectors witnessing ‘Moderate’ (0-10%) growth improved slightly to 44.3% (31 out of 70) from 42.9% (30 out of 70) in same period a year ago. The share of sectors witnessing ‘Low’ growth has come down substantially to 20% (14 out of 70) as compared to 31.4% (22 out of 70) recorded in the same period previous year.

On the production front, some sectors which have registered excellent growth include Commercial Vehicles, Three Wheelers, Construction Equipment Machinery, Soya Oil, Tractors and Sugar. On exports front, 3 wheelers, tractors, commercial vehicles, two wheelers, sugar, rapeseed meal reported excellent growth. Consequently, the survey observed that while the growth trends remain concentrated in the ‘Moderate’ category, a deceleration in the pace of de-growth suggests firming of the recovery in the economy. The survey tracked the performance of 70 sectors during the first quarter of the current fiscal (FY19), as against the year-ago period.

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