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FICCI forecasts India’s GDP growth at 7.4% for FY19

16 Aug 2018 Evaluate

The industry body, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in its latest Economic Outlook Survey has forecasted that the India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to expand at 7.4% in the current fiscal year (FY19), higher than the previous year. However, it said that rising oil prices are putting pressure on the current account, while global uncertainties around trade and financial markets carry serious risks for the rupee. Also, trade tensions between major economies are disturbing the global recovery.

The FICCI survey forecasts an annual median GDP growth at 7.4% for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 7.1% and 7.5%, respectively. It added that the projection is in line with the estimates put out by the Reserve Bank earlier this month. The expansion in the GDP was 6.7% (provisional) in 2017-18. On the growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal, it said the expansion in the economic activity would be 7.1%. On rupee front, it said the Indian currency will remain under strain. As per the report, the fair value of Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar would be in the range of 65 to 66.

On the sectoral front, the industry body said the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3% for 2018-19. Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during June and July, updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall. Besides, industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9% and 8.3%, respectively in 2018-19. Talking about inflation, FICCI said the Consumer Price Index or retail inflation has been forecast at 4.8% for the year as whole. Further, the median growth forecast for IIP has been put at 6.5% for the year 2018-19.


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