The Indian markets before going for a holiday had extended their gains for third straight session but ended flat with positive bias on Tuesday, while Sensex and Nifty settled at fresh closing highs, amid optimism over US-China trade talks. The markets remain closed on Wednesday for Bakri Id. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid mixed global cues. There will be some cautiousness with NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar’s statement that he was more concerned about the rising trade deficit than the falling rupee, and called for efforts to push exports. However, traders may get some support later in the day with the SBI’s latest research report ‘Ecowrap’ stating that the country’s GDP is expected to grow by 7.7 percent in the April-June quarter on the back of pick up in leading indicators like cement production, sale of vehicles and bank credit. Traders may get some encouragement with the finance ministry’s statement that the government will meet the fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal although there could be some slippages in the current account deficit (CAD) because of high crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the US has announced hefty preliminary anti-dumping duties on metal pipes imported from India, China and four other countries, in an aggressive tactic by the Trump administration to protect the American industry and lower the trade deficit. Besides, the government has imposed restriction on import of bio-fuels including ethyl alcohol and other denatured spirits, bio-diesel, petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals other than crude, through an amendment in import policy. There will be some reaction among banking sector stocks with Moody’s Investors Service’s statement that the government’s plan to provide more capital support to public sector banks in current fiscal will restore capital adequacy and improve loan-loss coverage at many loss-making banks, but stress will persist.
The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday, snapping four-day winning streak, after Fed minutes showed concern over wage pressures and as two days of trade talks between the US and China get underway. Asian markets were trading mixed in early trade on Thursday as a deadline loomed for fresh US tariffs on China and amid speculation US President Donald Trump's political position could be threatened by the legal woes of two former advisers.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended the choppy day of trade with marginal gains on Tuesday, as traders took comfort with a private report stating that India has been remarkably resilient in the recent turmoil in emerging market equities largely driven by macro stability, low policy uncertainty, improving growth and domestic flows. Markets after a positive start turned flat and traded choppy in green and red terrain throughout the day. Overall sentiments remained optimistic with Retirement fund body the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) payroll data suggesting that as many as 47.13 lakh jobs were created during September 2017 to June this year. Trader took some encouragement from a private report that a spectacular 53% increase in the number of income-tax returns filed electronically till July 31 has given the government renewed hope of continued high-paced growth in compliance and taxpayer base, even 21 months after demonetisation. Market participants also got some solace with Commerce and industry minister Suresh Prabhu reviewing two proposed policies- on agriculture export and new industrial policy to take the country’s exports to a new level. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is considering doubling or even quadrupling the minimum ticket size for investment in portfolio management services (PMS) schemes. However, gains remain capped with NITI Aayog’s statement that India needs to focus more on meeting its revenue deficit target than adhering to the fiscal deficit aim. NITI Aayog added that India needs to shift its obsession with the fiscal gap number and this obsession must end. Traders also took note with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in its latest report title ‘India Wage Report: Wage policies for decent work and inclusive growth’ stating that the country needs to improve its wage policies. Though, it also said that low pay, gender wage gap and informality remain a serious challenge to India’s path to achieving decent working conditions and inclusive growth. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 7.00 points or 0.02% to 38,285.75, while the CNX Nifty was up by 19.15 points or 0.17% to 11,570.90.
