Indian equity markets extended their gains for second straight session to end at new intra-day high levels on Tuesday as sentiments remained bullish largely in tandem with positive global cues as investors cheered the news of a trade deal between the US and Mexico. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid muted global cues. Investors are looking ahead the latest developments on global trade and the upcoming derivatives expiry. There will be some cautiousness with a private report that the Indian economy is in for a rough ride, with rising oil prices set to continue weighing on its already-weakened currency, widen its deficit, and affect its growth outlook. However, traders may get some encouragement with Care Ratings in its latest report bet on a higher GDP growth April-June quarter as compared to the last year. Meanwhile, NSE Indices on Tuesday announced a minor rejig in the benchmark Nifty50 index by replacing pharma stock Lupin with JSW Steel from September 28, 2018. Besides, the department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) has effectively ruled out foreign direct investment (FDI) in inventory-based ecommerce, allaying concerns raised by those opposed to such a move, even as it agreed with the need for a regulator to oversee the sector. There will be some cautiousness in the banking sector with credit rating agency ICRA’s statement that the total loss before tax for public sector banks (PSBs) in FY19 is estimated at Rs 41,900-1,01,600 crore, depending on the credit provisioning on stressed assets undergoing resolution. There will be some buzz in the telecom sector stocks with a report that India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a negative-to-stable outlook on telecom sector for the rest of FY19, saying weak revenue per user and high capex will continue to suppress the sectoral credit outlook.
The US markets ended slightly in green on Tuesday after a measure of consumer confidence hit a nearly 18-year high, underscoring a continued expansion of the US economy. Asian markets were trading mixed in early deals on Wednesday as optimism over the US-Mexico trade deal was quickly replaced by caution ahead of a looming deadline on tariffs with China.
Back home, bulls tightened grip on Dalal Street on Tuesday with Sensex and Nifty hitting fresh closing high and settling above their crucial 38,800 and 11,700 levels, respectively. After a decent opening, benchmarks traded firmly and fervently gained from strength to strength to end near intraday highs, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Markets started the session on an optimistic note with Economic policy think-tank, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its latest report retaining India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%, citing comfortable agricultural sector outlook and a marked improvement in the external sector. Adding to the optimism Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu said that the government is working on a comprehensive strategy in a bid to double India’s export by the year 2025. He also said that the meeting of different exports’ stakeholders discussed a strategy for revitalizing India’s exports. Markets added gains in last leg of trade to end near all-time closing highs, as some support came with the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion’s (DIPP) latest data showing that foreign direct investment (FDI) in India grew by 23% to $12.75 billion during the April-June quarter of 2018-19, as compared to foreign fund inflows of $10.4 billion in April-June 2017-18. Traders also took encouragement with finance minister Arun Jaitley’s statement the government is looking at achieving economic growth higher than predicted by many in the current financial year and India could become the fifth largest economy (surpassing the UK) next year. Traders shrugged off State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report Ecowrap that India’s current account deficit (CAD) is likely to touch 2.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the current fiscal (FY19) on account of surge in crude oil prices and moderate growth in exports. It also said that even merchandise trade imbalance is expected to increase to Rs 188 billion in FY19 as against Rs 160 billion in FY18. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 202.52 points or 0.52% to 38,896.63, while the CNX Nifty was up by 46.55 points or 0.40% to 11,738.50.
