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Ind-Ra retains ‘negative-to-stable’ outlook on India’s telecom sector for FY19

29 Aug 2018 Evaluate

The India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has retained its outlook on India's telecom sector at ‘negative-to-stable’ for the rest of financial year 2019. It said that continued weak average revenue per user (ARPU) forecasts, along with elevated capex for network and technology, will continue to suppress the sectoral credit outlook. It added that the industry's pricing power is yet to return, largely due to cut-throat competition after Reliance Jio entry in 2016.

According to the report, the industry will now be in the stabilization phase, with the merger of Vodafone and Idea Cellular finally approved and network integration in offing. It also said that the revenue market shares of all the players will also evolve over FY19, in line with their share of 4G data subscribers (higher ARPU customers). It noted that the current ARPUs are unsustainable from the cost and returns point of view, and that the ARPU decline is likely to be contained. It also said that the second round of consolidation in the industry will be based on a transition from multiple to single SIM, and would be a key event to watch for, once the tariffs witness upward corrections.

Talking on the telecom sector's debt levels - a key monitorable for industry watchers - the ratings agency said that debt levels are likely to remain high due to ongoing capex needs. It does not expect the sector leverage to reduce meaningfully in FY19, as most of the debt will be refinanced. It noted that as over 50 per cent of telcos' debt is in the form of deferred spectrum liabilities, which enjoy a fixed rate of interest, the sector is partially cushioned from the impact of tighter interest rates. Besides, it indicated that India's wireless data usage has increased exponentially to almost 20 percent of the current global data usage, however smartphone penetration in India is only 33%.

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